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Kinesisk vendepunkt: Vandringen mod byerne er stoppet

maj 05, 2015
by Public Futures
0 Comment

Lewis-turning-pointDet hedder et “Lewis turning point”, og det markerer et vigtigt gearskift for Kina – og for verden. Det er intet mindre end en megatrend, der knækker. Financial Times har historien. Verdensøkonomien har i tre årtier været stærkt præget af Kinas historisk enestående økonomiske vækst. Kinas vækst har været drevet af en enorm arbejdskraftsreserve i lavproduktive landområder, som er vandret mod byerne i massivt omfang.

Det har holdt lønnen nede, profitterne oppe, og opsparing og investeringer på tårnhøje niveauer. Udviklingen har fulgt en model, der blev beskrevet af en økonom ved navn Arthur Lewis i 1954. Vendepunktet – “the Lewis turning point” indtræffer, når arbejdskraftreserven er blevet absorberet i byerne. Så stiger lønningerne, profitten falder, og økonomien skifter fra at være drevet af investering og eksportproduktion til at være drevet af forbrug og produktion for en stigende hjemlig efterspørgsel.

Det betyder også, at såvel Kinas vækst som handelsoverskuddet overfor omverdenen vil falde. Det bliver en dramatisk omvæltning, især for Kina selv. På en måde repræsenterer dette vendepunkt “blot” en overgang til en mere balanceret udvikling, hvor tingene finder et mere stabilt leje, både internt i Kina og i verdensøkonomien. I princippet burde det kunne foregå jævnt og roligt, dvs. uden f.eks. bristede bobler på aktie- og ejendomsmarkeder, finansielle kriser osv. – for ikke at tale om internationale kriser og konflikter. Men virkeligheden følger desværre ikke altid modellerne.

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