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Der sker mindre i fremtiden

juni 07, 2021
by Public Futures
, ,
0 Comment

Danmarks Statistik er kommet med en ny befolkningsfremskrivning. Den følges tæt af alle, der beskæftiger sig strategisk med fremtiden, men den har ikke trukket de helt store overskrifter. Måske fordi den viser, at der ikke vil ske det helt vilde de næste 40 år.

Som det ses på grafen (klik for større version), fremskrives antallet af 0-79 årige til at ligge meget stabilt de næste 40 år. Kun gruppen af 80+ årige vokser, og bidrager dermed alene til, at befolkningen som helhed vokser.

Befolkningens aldring har store konsekvenser, både markedsmæssigt – hvor alderssegmenter er kundesegmenter – og samfundsøkonomisk, som vi kender fra årtiers politiske debatter og reformer af tilbagetrækningsområdet.

Der har været megen bekymring og usikkerhed omkring hvorvidt samfundsindretningen, og (tilsyneladende vigtigst) finanspolitikken er ”holdbar” i forhold til aldringen. Det kommer vi også til at høre om frem over, ikke mindst i forhold til sundhedsområdet.

Vi vil stadig se demografiske udfordringer. Men det er et interessant perspektiv, at de kommende ændringer bliver mindre end dem, vi allerede har været igennem de foregående 40 år, når det angår den såkaldte forsørgerbrøk, dvs. arbejdsstyrken i forhold til resten af befolkningen. Forsørgerbrøkens forskydning er for øvrigt sket inden for de seneste blot 20 år, så i det lys syner fremtiden ganske moderat.

Og hvis man vil, kan man tage de økonomiske vismænds briller på og vurdere, at de allerede vedtagne reformer har gjort den fremtidige finanspolitik ”overholdbar”.

Man kan også tage de historiske briller på og sige, at vi aldrig har haft et samfund med så gammel en befolkning, som vi får i fremtiden. Det må komme til at betyde noget, også rent bortset fra det økonomiske.

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